AbstractBackgroundField atmospheric diffusion tracer experiments are commonly used methods for verifying the effectiveness of atmospheric diffusion models in nuclear accident consequence assessment systems. China Institute for Radiation Protection (CIRP) is conducting a study to verify the effectiveness of the nuclear accident consequence assessment system. This study proposes to conduct field atmospheric diffusion tracer experiments in different environmental conditions in China and use the experimental data to evaluate the effectiveness of model simulation in the China Nuclear Accident Consequence Assessment System (NACADOS).
Materials and MethodsSome atmospheric diffusion tracer experiments have been conducted at a relatively flat coastal plant site. To evaluate the applicability of diffusion models in the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support of Java version (JRODOS) system at China’s nuclear power plant sites, and the effectiveness of the model in the China NACADOS, the diffusion model Risø Mesoscale PUFF model (RIMPUFF) from JRODOS and a three-dimensional particle diffusion model from NACADOS were selected to simulate the sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer experiment in the CIRP effectiveness verification research project. Similar to the currently commonly used methods for evaluating the effectiveness of atmospheric models, the simulation results were compared with the experimental results using various indicators such as fit factor (FACT), mean error (BIAS), and other statistical measures.
Results and DiscussionThe BIAS, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and normalised mean square error show that the model in JRODOS is better. The FACT2 and FACT3.5 also indicate that the simulation performance of the JRODOS models is better, but the FACT5 and FACT10 indicate that the NACADOS model is slightly better. Overall, the difference in model simulation results between the two systems is not particularly significant.
IntroductionThe nuclear accident consequence assessment and decision support system is an essential tool in nuclear accident emergency response and drills. Atmospheric diffusion models are important assessment tools in nuclear accident consequence assessment systems. The accuracy of nuclear accident consequence assessment systems is affected by atmospheric diffusion models; thus, these models need to be verified and confirmed [1].
China Institute for Radiation Protection (CIRP) is conducting a study to verify the effectiveness of nuclear accident consequence assessment systems. This study proposes conducting field atmospheric diffusion tracer experiments in various environmental conditions in China and utilizing the experimental data to evaluate the effectiveness of model simulations in the China Nuclear Accident Consequence Assessment System (NACADOS). The system has conducted comparative analysis with the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support of Java version (JRODOS) model under fixed conditions. Currently, the simulation results of the diffusion model in the system are being compared with those of the diffusion model in JRODOS using the conducted experiments.
Materials and Methods1. The Field Atmospheric Diffusion Tracer Experiment Data1) Introduction of the experimentThe atmospheric diffusion tracer experiment data used in the study were collected in the summer of 2022 in the Lianyungang area. The experimental area was generally flat, with the terrain having a relatively weak effect on the wind field. The overall terrain is depicted in Fig. 1, with the release point situated at the center. The elevation difference in terrain does not exceed 100 m, with the (+) indicating the position of the sampling points. Based on the statistical analysis of wind characteristics in the experimental area, sampling points were eventually established at various distances within 10 km to the west of the selected release location. The tracer gas used in the experiment is sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), released at a height of 30 m and for a duration of 1 hour each time. Sampling is performed at all indicated sampling points in Fig. 1. After release, the arrival time of the SF6 plume is estimated based on the current wind speed and the distance from each sampling point to the release point. Sampling commences 10 minutes after the estimated arrival time.
The experiment utilized the TWA-300 automatic electronic time-controlled atmospheric sampler manufactured by Shanghai Xingzhuoan Environmental Protection Instrument Co., Ltd. The instrument is equipped with a low-power steady flow pump, flow regulating valve, buffer, filter, and electronic time-controlled circuit. The flowmeter is controlled between 20 mL/min and 500 mL/min, which is particularly suitable for small flow timing sampling. The ambient temperature used for the instrument is 0–45 °C, and the relative humidity is ≤90%. The instrument employs a long-life air pump to extract gas from the site, with the required flow rate being adjusted via an adjustable three-way valve. The timing can be set by a time timer to pump the gas to be collected into the air bag at a fixed time. The effective sampling rate ranges from 0.05 L/min to 0.3 L/min, with a maximum range of 0.50 L/min. The sample bag is made of aluminum foil, possessing high airtightness and low absorption characteristics. The collected samples are analyzed by gas chromatography, which uses 5A molecular sieve packed column to separate SF6, and is detected by gas chromatography electron capture detector. The concentration is determined according to the peak area. The information on sampling processes is listed in Table 1.
2) Meteorological data during the experimentIn this study, the meteorological data utilized are the meteorological tower data at the release point. This simulation uses 10 minutes meteorological data to drive diffusion model. The meteorological data used are as follows: wind direction, wind speed, temperature data at each layer of the meteorological tower and the data measured at 10 m height of other locations.
A three-dimensional objective diagnostic wind field model was used in the paper, which is based on principle of mass conservation. The simulated area of the diagnostic wind field is centered around the release point, extending 20 km in both the west-east and north-south directions. The simulation area is divided into 201×201 grids, each with a resolution of 100 m. Vertically, there are 20 layers, with the first layer being 10 m thick, and subsequent layers being 50 m thick.
2. Simulation Parameter SettingsBoth the input data time period and output period of the model are 10 minutes. The horizontal area of the atmospheric diffusion model aligns with that of the wind field diagnostic model. The grid number and resolution of the diagnostic wind field are also utilized for the diffusion model. The grid number and resolution of the vertical direction are also consistent with the wind field diagnostic model. The time simulation step of the diffusion model is 10 seconds, with 40 particles released at each step. In the diffusion model of JRODOS (v2019), the model settings are configured based on the inherent system settings.
3. Comparison of Simulation Results1) Simulated conditionsFour sampling processes were simulated with a release height of 30 m and a release quantity of 24 kg. The wind speed was relatively high, and the atmospheric stability during the release period was slightly unstable. The first and second release processes experienced northeasterly winds, while the third and fourth release processes transitioned from northeast to easterly winds.
2) Comparison of simulation results
Fig. 2 displays the simulation results of the NACADOS diffusion model, including the distribution of simulated wind fields, concentration fields, and sampling points with concentrations above 0 during each release process. It can be seen that the distribution range of simulated plume is consistent with the distribution of sampling points with concentration values higher than 0 in actual sampling; that is, the range of simulated smoke clouds is consistent with the range of actual plume distribution.
The simulated concentration field does not appear to exhibit a Gaussian distribution. There are two reasons. Firstly, the wind direction varied over time, causing changes in the direction of the concentration fields. The direction of the concentration fields reflects a specific moment, and the fields may appear curved at certain points. Secondly, the particle model was utilized to simulate the diffusion of SF6 in this paper, with the particle distribution characterizing the concentration distribution. Due to the relatively discrete particle distribution, the edges of the concentration field may appear different from those of a Gaussian distribution.
The study refers to indicators used in the effectiveness analysis of the DIsPersion over COmplex Terrain (DIPCOT) diffusion model [2] in the European Nuclear Accident Consequence Assessment System (JRODOS), and other indicators including: mean error (BIAS), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), normalised mean square error (NMSE), and the FACTor of x (FACTx, where x=2, 3.5, 5, and 10), which represents the fraction of Cp falling within Co/x and x·Co, where Cp and Co represent the observed and calculated concentrations, respectively.
Among the selected indicators, NMSE assigns greater weight to larger differences between observed and simulated values. The NMSE value provides information about bias rather than indicating overestimation or underestimation, resulting in positive values for this indicator. If the distribution of NMSE is relatively consistent, it indicates that the model performs well spatially and temporally. However, a high NMSE does not necessarily imply poor simulation performance of the model, as the sampling points in the tracer experiment reported are all in high concentration gradient areas. Significant differences between the simulated and actual plume directions result in higher NMSE values.
Results and DiscussionDue to the close simulation results of the three models (DIPCOT, LAgrangian Simulation of Aerosol Transport [LASAT], Risø Mesoscale PUFF model [RIMPUFF]) in JRODOS (v2019), especially under fixed conditions, the simulation results of the three models are essentially consistent. Hence, only the simulation results of RIMPUFF are presented.
By comparing the distribution of simulation results and sampling results from four experiments, it is evident that there exist good linear relationships between the simulation results and sampling results. Despite the overall distribution of the fourth experiment being relatively dispersed, the distribution on both sides of the diagonal was relatively uniform. Overall, the discrepancies between the results of the four simulation experiments and the observed results were relatively small, as shown in Tables 2 and 3. The first simulation yielded the smallest error, while the fourth experiment had the largest error. The FACTor is the most commonly used indicator for evaluating diffusion models, as depicted in Figs. 3 and 4. In the four experiments, the wind conditions were relatively straightforward, and both the NACADOS model and the JRODOS model demonstrated satisfactory performance, as indicated by the FACTor in Tables 2 and 3.
Regarding the performance of JRODOS models, the BIAS, MAE, RMSE, and NMSE indicate superior performance compared to other models. The FACT2 and FACT3.5 also indicate superior simulation performance of the JRODOS models, while the FACT5 and FACT10 suggest a slight advantage for the NACADOS model. Overall, the disparities in model simulation results between the two systems are not notably significant.
ConclusionThis paper simulates the experimental data from a study proposing to conduct field atmospheric diffusion tracer experiments in various environmental conditions in China, aiming to evaluate the effectiveness of models in the NACADOS. Currently, the project has conducted an atmospheric diffusion tracer experiment at a relatively flat coastal plant site. In the ongoing atmospheric diffusion tracing experiments conducted in flat terrain conditions, the performance of the diffusion model in JRODOS shows slight superiority, with no particularly significant differences observed in model simulation results between the two systems. Subsequent atmospheric diffusion tracing experiments in complex conditions will enable further evaluation of the model’s applicability.
NotesAcknowledgementsWe thank Dr. Rentai Yao for his advice and technical guidance during the course of this study.
References1. Yao RT. Review and progresses in studies of nuclear accident consequence assessment. Radiat Prot Bull. 2009;29(1):1-10. (Chinese).
2. Andronopoulos S, Davakis E, Bartzis JG. RODOS-DIPCOT model description and evaluation: RODOS(RA2)-TN(09)-01 [Internet]. RODOS; 2009 [cited 2024 May 11]. Available from: https://resy5.ites.kit.edu/RODOS/Documents/Public/HandbookV6f/Volume3/RA2TN0901_DIPCOT.pdf
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