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J Radiat Prot > Volume 29(1); 2004 > Article
Journal of Radiation Protection 2004;29(1):65-0.
원자력 사고시 초기 비상대응 결정지원을 위한 다속성 효용 분석법의 적용
황원태;김은한;서경석;정효준;한문희;이창우;
Application of Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis for the Decision Support of Countermeasures in Early Phase of a Nuclear Emergency
Hwang, Won-Tae;Kim, Eun-Han;Suh, Kyung-Suk;Jeong, Hyo-Joon;Han, Moon-Hee;Lee, Chang-Woo;
ABSTRACT
A multi-attribute utility analysis was investigated as a tool for the decision support of countermeasures in early phase of a nuclear accident. The utility function of attributes was assumed to be the second order polynomial expressions, and the weighting constant of attributes was determined using a swing weighting method. Because the main objective of this study focuses on the applicability of a multi-attribute utility analysis as a tool for the decision support of countermeasures in early phase of a nuclear accident, less quantifiable attributes were not included due to lack of information. In postulated accidental scenarios for the application of the designed methodology, the variation of the numerical values of total utility for the considered actions, e.g. sheltering, evacuation and no action, was investigated according to the variation of attributes. As a result, it was shown that the numerical values of total utility for the actions are distinctly different depending on the exposure dose and monetary value of dose. As increasing in both attributes, the rank of the numerical values of total utility increased for evacuation, which is more extreme action than for sheltering, while that of no action decreased. As expected probability of high dose is higher, the break-even values for the monetary value of dose, which are the monetary value of dose when the ranking of actions is changed, were lower. In audition, as aversion psychology for dose is higher, the break-even values for dose were lower.
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